When tomorrow comes: A prospective risk assessment of a future artificial general intelligence-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system.

There are concerns that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could pose an existential threat to humanity; however, as AGI does not yet exist it is difficult to prospectively identify risks and develop requisite controls. We applied the Work Domain Analysis Broken Nodes (WDA-BN) and Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork-Broken Links (EAST-BL) methods to identify potential risks in a future 'envisioned world' AGI-based uncrewed combat aerial vehicle system. The findings suggest five main categories of risk in this context: sub-optimal performance risks, goal alignment risks, super-intelligence risks, over-control risks, and enfeeblement risks. Two of these categories, goal alignment risks and super-intelligence risks, have not previously been encountered or dealt with in conventional safety management systems. Whereas most of the identified sub-optimal performance risks can be managed through existing defence design lifecycle processes, we propose that work is required to develop controls to manage the other risks identified. These include controls on AGI developers, controls within the AGI itself, and broader sociotechnical system controls.

Evaluation of a systems ergonomics-based incident reporting system.

INTRODUCTION: Incident reporting and learning systems are a fundamental component of safety management. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a novel incident reporting system specific to the Australian Led Outdoor Activity (LOA) sector. The Understanding and Preventing Led Outdoor Accidents Data System (UPLOADS), is a recently introduced systems thinking-based incident reporting and learning system that utilises contemporary safety theory and methods. METHOD: The implementation of UPLOADS was evaluated using the RE-AIM framework based on the following dimensions: Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance. A pragmatic evaluation approach was used in which evaluation data were collected through the triangulation of multiple sources including different LOA stakeholders from both the individual organisational level (LOA providers) and LOA sector governance level (LOA industry representatives), incident data collected through the UPLOADS National Incident Dataset, and the online and physical presence of UPLOADS. RESULTS: The findings show that a key strength of UPLOADS is its effectiveness as incident reporting tool for improving safety in the LOA sector. However, a weakness of UPLOADS is that it is not being implemented appropriately by the LOA providers. CONCLUSION: Overall, the current findings suggest that UPLOADS incident reporting tool is perceived by SMEs as an effective tool for improving safety in LOA. However, further work is required for UPLOADS to have a greater impact on the LOA sector. Specifically, Implementation of the UPLOADS system requires improvement, as well as additional training and education may be required to upskill and empower LOA providers to improve reporting and enhance the value placed on safety by LOA stakeholders. The RE-AIM framework was an appropriate evaluation framework for understanding the effectiveness of UPLOADS as a LOA sector specific incident reporting and learning system. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The current findings have practical implications for ergonomics researchers applying evaluation frameworks in the real world, and LOA providers for implementing safety interventions. Lastly, contemporary systems-based incident reporting and learning systems have the capability to enhance the safety practices of the LOA sector.

Accounting for memes in sociotechnical systems: extending the abstraction hierarchy to consider cognitive objects.

Work domain analysis (WDA) is used to model the functional structure of sociotechnical systems (STS) through the abstraction hierarchy (AH). By identifying objects, processes, functions and measures that support system purposes, WDA reveals constraints within the system. Traditionally, the AH describes system elements at the lowest level of abstraction as physical objects. Multiple analyses of complex systems reveal that many include objects that exist only at a conceptual level. This paper argues that, by extending the AH to include cognitive objects, the analytical power of WDA is extended, and novel areas of application are enabled. Three case studies are used to demonstrate the role that cognitive objects play within STS. It is concluded that cognitive objects are a valid construct that offer a significant enhancement of WDA and enable its application to some of the world's most pressing problems. Implications for future applications of WDA and the AH are discussed. Practitioner summary: Some sociotechnical systems include memes as part of their functional structure. Three case studies were used to evaluate the utility of introducing cognitive objects alongside physical ones in work domain analysis, the first phase of cognitive work analysis. Including cognitive objects increases the scope and accuracy of work domain analysis.

Sociotechnical systems as a framework for regulatory system design and evaluation: Using Work Domain Analysis to examine a new regulatory system.

Like most work systems, the domain of adventure activities has seen a series of serious incidents and subsequent calls to improve regulation. Safety regulation systems aim to promote safety and reduce accidents. However, there is scant evidence they have led to improved safety outcomes. In fact there is some evidence that the poor integration of regulatory system components has led to adverse safety outcomes in some contexts. Despite this, there is an absence of methods for evaluating regulatory and compliance systems. This article argues that sociotechnical systems theory and methods provide a suitable framework for evaluating regulatory systems. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a recently introduced set of adventure activity regulations. Work Domain Analysis (WDA) was used to describe the regulatory system in terms of its functional purposes, values and priority measures, purpose-related functions, object-related processes and cognitive objects. This allowed judgement to be made on the nature of the new regulatory system and on the constraints that may impact its efficacy following implementation. Importantly, the analysis suggests that the new system's functional purpose of ensuring safe activities is not fully supported in terms of the functions and objects available to fulfil them. Potential improvements to the design of the system are discussed along with the implications for regulatory system design and evaluation across the safety critical domains generally.